Global Trade This Week – November 21st, 2022

What’s going on in Global Trade this Week? Today Doug Draper of ACME Distribution and Trade Geek Pete Mento of Mento LLC cover:

2:47 -Mixed Messages in Airfreight - Expanding & Contracting
8:52 -Revamping Section 337 to Ban Certain Chinese Imports?
15:20 -Halftime
25:07 -Update on the Potential Railroad Strike
30:17 -Supply Side Signal - China’s Production Numbers are Down


  • Keenan Brugh 0:00

    You're watching Global Trade This Week with Pete Mento and Doug Draper.

    Pete Mento 0:09

    Well, hello, everyone. And if you didn't get to enjoy the beautiful dulcet tones of Keenan saying, you're watching global trade this week, I will backup that claim by letting you know that you are in fact watching global trade this week. I am Pete mento. And with me, nearly as always, except when I don't show up and Keaton has to get in there for me is the Gosh, I don't even know how to put on the MVP, the varsity. The Golden first ballot Hall of Famer of this show of Draper, Doug, how you doing pal?

    Doug Draper 0:46

    I am doing great. I'm doing great short, short, fun week, this this week. It's it's Thanksgiving, man Thanksgiving.

    Pete Mento 0:56

    Yeah. But in this industry, it seems like it doesn't work out that way. For us, like I, you know, I'm speaking at an event today. Wednesday, Wednesday is you know, for those of us that you are a security, we're going to call on everyone and making sure everything's locked up, make sure that you've got extra security going around, because these long weekends are just a great opportunity for theft. So I don't know, man, we haven't really gotten to enjoy a long holiday weekend in a while.

    Doug Draper 1:24

    Well, it's kind of the norm in our industry, right? At some point, somebody we touch is working on a Friday after Thanksgiving, or up until 9pm On the day before or the weekend or whatever. I think in our industry, it's just par for the course you can take them as you can get them as far as the holidays. Dig this,

    Pete Mento 1:44

    Doug, I work for a company that was founded in Canada and many of my counterparts are in Canada. And people were asking me if I can make meetings on Thursday. And you know, is it more like, like I had their Thanksgiving a couple of weeks ago, and I didn't care about theirs. And I would have probably sent them something too. And they probably don't care about mine. So that is perfectly fair. So yeah, we did them and then it was all good. But Doug, I will definitely tell him my assembled loved ones that I'm thankful for you on Thanksgiving in the show Kenan definitely thankful for CAP logistics. And certainly thankful for the opportunity to sling it yet again. Another episode. That being said, Doug, why don't you like this candle?

    Doug Draper 2:33

    I will light it and it is a good topic for global trade. Right? The world does not revolve around the United States of America as some of us may think, or not some of us but some of some of those listening but I'm kind of getting mixed messages in the air freight racket nowadays peed every, I wouldn't say every day. But there's a lot of times where one article talks about how these companies are expanding the steamship lines or buying assets and opening up their own air freight divisions. And then like literally the next day, potentially even the same. Industry blast there's a whole nother article about other companies that are contracting on their air freight. And I'm not sure which one to believe, right, some are pulling back. Some are moving forward asset providers and freight forwarders and the users of those services and the ones that resell and it's just it's striking to me because like MSC air cargo has moved up their start date for their for their services are rolling out their air freight service. Amazon air expects to expand into the Boston manche Manchester airport area. Not Logan, but an airport just north right down the road from you, buddy. Yeah, yeah. Expansion, MSC carrier expansion, Pittsburgh airport $44 million on an air cargo facility. Toronto, you'll have to ask your Canadian buddies up there. They're flipping some office space into cargo space, Korean Air, VA British Airways Aeromax. They're all resuming schedules that they took down over over COVID. And then this one's kind of funny. Boeing predicts that there will be 60% more freighters needed in 2041. Now where the 2041 came from, I'm not really sure but that is a long time out and make some type of judgment and call like that. And you know, they make airplanes so I'm sure it's an official for them to make a statement. But then there's, you know, there was an article talked about financial results of air freight are crumbling and they don't expect those to get back in line until 2025. That Next is dumping about 40 flights. People are concerned that air freight continues to deflate on the global economy. So it's weird. I don't know how to figure it out, Pete because some are growing, some are contracting. And one of them's gonna get it wrong. I'm just not sure. You know which one that would be. So, my forward lean is, you know, who do we believe for? Is it simply a case of spinning the data to make, make one side's narrative? Have the data fit the narrative? And my take, and I said this a while back on a couple of shows ago, I think there is going to be overcapacity in 2023. And I think we're going to have a lot of articles about these companies are hedging their bets pulling back, assets are going to be grounded, things of that nature, you can always Park an airplane to take things out of market. But anyway, I don't have a strong take one way or another. But if I had the ln P, I think there's going to be overcapacity, which we spoke about in the past, specifically in 2023. So I don't know, what do you think? What's your take on that?

    Pete Mento 6:07

    I don't have a good answer. So, you know, when I got your topics, I was on the train on the way down here. And I was on the phone with a, you know, kinda an old salt in the industry. And I asked him his opinion. And he also said, I don't know, it was weird, because I've been pretty emphatic that I think that airfreight is, it's a pretty good bet for the next few years, mostly because of the the commerce associated with it, just a lot of the things that people want right now are going to or they're not going to move ocean freight, they're going to end up moving the air freight, because either the delicate nature of it, than the expediency required in the security concerns. So that was kind of where my head was going. But this friend of mine said, think about two other things. While you're at it. There's a lot of economic indicators right now that are pointing towards automotive manufacturing ramping back up again. So the availability of new automotive, and that has a lot to do with the availability of certain technologies that were just hard to find in the supply chain. So I think that there's going to be a lot of of airfreight in use and things like heavy industry, certainly automotive, the aerospace industry itself, where there should be a ramping up of that. And then as far as airports go, you always want to build an infrastructure in a faltered faulting economy, right. So that's when usually when things are cheaper, but with all of the inflation that we're seeing right now, probably not the case in money's not cheap. So a lot of times, you would say to people, of course, Pearson is going to, you know, increase Toronto Airport, of course, you know, we're going to expand that one way. And Logan, now that things are are quieter, of course, we're going to have a cargo output in Manchester, because people are gonna want to make an investment. It's not necessarily a great time to make investments, that you can't swing a cat around the internet without finding dueling attitudes about how long the recession will last, how long inflation is going to last, and how long these interests are going to be. So I tend to be pretty emphatic with my opinions. But this is one where my gut is telling me you're free to steal a safe bet. And maybe that's why you're seeing a lot of these companies, but they don't make investments like this on God. They make investments on this, based on statistics. I just don't know where the fun of that did. Yeah, yeah, that's

    Doug Draper 8:31

    a it's a great point, we shall see infrastructure. I'm good with that. Right? Let's build it out. So when it pops, again, you can accommodate and have the throughput and the connectors we spoken about. So yeah, but money ain't cheap, as we know. So. Anyway, what? Yeah, we're gonna flip it. What do you got for topic one?

    Pete Mento 8:50

    So yeah, there's doozies. There's a couple of think tanks out there that are making a suggestion on how to deal with how to deal with China allegedly got to say that, allegedly, Chinese manufacturers steal ideas from other parts of the world, mass produced them, sometimes without even changing anything, and then put the back in the market under Chinese names. And many of the times this is done with not only the direct knowledge of the Chinese government, it's done with a subsidy from the Chinese government, like they were given money so they can be successful with it. So not only are they stealing everybody's ideas, allegedly, they're also going out there and they're getting financial support to ramp up production. And you know, when you've got what was it, 1.4 billion people, many of whom are young and new jobs. You're trying to build yourself into a self sustaining economic machine. You can understand why people might do that, but it's contrary to how we're supposed to be running the global economy. In a shocking, shocking play of irony, you don't ever want to steal an idea from a Chinese company. Because the Chinese government will go after you in conjunction with that company to make sure that you don't get away with it. But they've for decades been getting away with doing it the other direction, allegedly. Now, the idea I gotta keep saying that Doug, kind of keep saying I want to keep my Chinese visa, man, when I go over there, I don't want to screw anything up. So what this think tank is saying is we should reintroduce this concept of what's called Section 337. So section 321, was the the absolute purge stopping two tariffs that we had under President Trump that created the Trump and Biden tariffs on the veterans law, we're calling it but 337 does is much more final, and certainly terrifying to a Chinese manufacturer. What it says is, if the US government has proof, you know, beyond reason to believe it has proof that a foreign company, and it was really Britain, particularly to the Chinese has stolen actual property has, you know, gone after marketing rights doing counterfeits did the ban the import of that product from China, and not just not just that particular company, all products from China, then in that particular type of item from coming into this country from China, so you can't weasel around and say, Okay, well, company, ABC is not making any more company. l&l is going to make it right now and find some way to get under the 33337. This is a this is like the neutron bomb of sections. This is pretty ugly. It's like everything else that the USTR has, they'll make the rules on whether or not something qualifies, and they'll set it up. So the President wins. I don't believe that President Biden would go that far with China. He's trying very hard to build a bridge. But I think that a president Santas DeSantis definitely would. And I think we're all pretty confident saying that President Trump would probably like day one, you start writing orders. So there's this facet, it's fascinating to think that we're at that point now, where the Chinese were talking about banning entire blocks of production of particular products because of our fear. And where would it be the aerospace, biomedical Pharma? Certainly automotive consumer electronics?

    Doug Draper 12:19

    Yeah, it's interesting that the one thing that gives me a little bit of pause on that thing is that you were showing, you know, size of a breadbasket, right? So what if the domestic and the US manufacturers

    Pete Mento 12:33

    need that one piece,

    Doug Draper 12:34

    right? Hey, I'm doing my part here. I'm making stuff I brought jobs back. We got a great team here. But I need two or three pieces from from China, I can't find them anywhere else. And I need that to, to keep my jobs keep my company open. So I could see that being problematic. Maybe a fool, you know, maybe commodities, and the solar industry and things like that. But I think there's parts and pieces of a greater manufacturing process in the US where that could create potential problems. And either exceptions or workarounds that would even come from the US to say, well, this rule applies, except for this, or except for that. So well, we'll just see if it if it comes out, if I

    Pete Mento 13:21

    can, yeah, but what you just said, the way that they would probably address or try to address it would be first of all, like the chips act, right, they'd say that we don't have a, b, and c. So as a government, we're going to find ways to support production of that in this country, or in a country where we have an alliance. And if you use the money to export to any other country, we're going to come down on. And then the second half of that is we're very fearful of that, which is political interference with it, where you and I've got a successful company, pretty happy with the way things are gone. And then demo, just just as you said, there's a product we need in order to remain successful. We can't get it anymore. And the government saying we'll do that, and then we use our political influence through senators and congressmen to do something where it benefits us. Ultimately, that's, that's not going to bring production back to an allied country. It's not going to stop a nation that we're alleging is stealing technology from continuing to steal it. All it's going to do is allow for the government to get engaged and stick their nose in it, and probably not fix it for the future. We'll just fix it for you and I which is you know, a big problem in the grand scheme. Yeah,

    Doug Draper 14:37

    yeah. Well, we'll see rules are important to follow until they're no longer convenient, right. I

    Pete Mento 14:41

    hate it when they say that Doug, my day is irrelevant. It might be irrelevant, but you know, rules are there so that Pete mental stays employed, we should always remember. Okay, fair enough. That brings us to halftime my friend brought to all of you by CAP logistics way more as a cap logistics.com A halftime is the moment on the show where between our two topics, Doug and I speak about things that are on our mind, topics that interest us. And basically, Doug, quietly and with a terrified look on his face wonders exactly just how far afield I'm going to go. This week. Oh, it's a doozy. So why don't you go ahead and lead us off and I will oppose it up. All right, well,

    Doug Draper 15:26

    this one's pretty mundane. So we'll ramp up for years. But our beloved president just turned 80. Yesterday, on November 28, he turned 80 years old, oldest president in US history. If he goes for reelection, and is reelected, he will be 86 years old at the end of her tenure, so I started looking into that a little bit are at the end of his second term, and the octo Jen, Marion's octogenarians, which are people in their 80s. The workforce that comprises that that decade, has grown substantially since the 1940s. Right, so back in, in 1980, I'm sorry, there's two things 1942? Well, let me start with this one, or 19 82.5% of people over the age of 80, were in the workforce this year, and two were not this year, in 2019, it was 6.6%. So it's basically tripled the amount of people that are working in their 80s. That probably dipped a little bit during COVID. Because then the last number I gave to you was 2019. And a life expectancy that this one is shocking to me, because me this, this differential would be more of several generations rather than than one or two, but life expectancy in 1942 66 years old. 2019 79 years old, everybody knows and there was some some discussion about that dipping during COVID and the life expectancy was decreasing. But here's the deal is age and Octo Janerio. Ian's is that an automatic disqualifier for leadership positions? Because what we've seen recently, and in one just happened yesterday, where the old CEO of Disney, the new one got booted, the old one. Iger came back in to kind of run the show. He's committed to two more years to run the show. And then Howard Schultz from Starbucks came back in. So it's interesting. So my whole point in this one, Pete is that I think is the life expectancy in us too. In Long gate, no pun intended, that that generation in the Octagon Octo, Joe antarians, will continue. And I think that the percentage of people in the workforce will continue to grow, and we'll see more 80 year olds out there counting it, I don't know if they'll be driving trucks and checking packages, but there'll be out there.

    Pete Mento 18:06

    I don't have to say about this. So the first thing I've got to say, Doug, is I think it's a I think it's it's a it's a criminal, it's an indictment on our society, that we live in a world where people that old are forced to have to work. So that's that's like my, my first real problem with it. I don't think you've managed to live that long. You should have to worry about your economic stability. And you call me a soft if you want. But I've a lot I've loved memories of my grandfather, who was relatively successful in ways that maybe he shouldn't have been. But at the end of his life, you know, he outlived his retirement. And it was hard. So that scares me. And then second of all, you know, a lot of other countries older people live with their families as they get older. I want you to even consider for a moment you living with and being taken care of by one of your children, I'm pretty sure that my my both of my daughters would lift me up but my boys would be like, you can go in the garage and just die. But the other half of it is is really a question of, of competency. And I don't think that being old should ever disqualify someone from having a job. I regularly have conversations with people in this industry, who are deep into their 80s that have all other faculties that that I rely on for insights and guidance and wisdom. Now do I think that being president when you're 86 is a pretty cool situation to be in? Maybe it is for him, but I don't want the height of stress for me when I'm that age should be what color liquor am I drinking today? And what direction am I going to walk toward the sun? Because it just it just seems like way too much stress? Yeah, that's it.

    Doug Draper 20:00

    You know, my dad is 84 years old and he still works. And it's, it's kind of well, it's kind of a job, job and everything but he, well, he fell down, he had an accident had to go into hospital. And he was wanting to get out in order to go back to work. And I'm like, I don't crazy. It's crazy. And he doesn't need to work. He wants to work. So I think that there's quite a bit in that generation that may fit in that category.

    Pete Mento 20:24

    Well, think about all the farmers, you know, that never I mean, they weren't till the day they died. Ranchers, fisherman's and other ones. Like, I know a lot of guys that were on the boat when they died, because they were just like, first of all, I went there, my wife, she'll find something. And the second reason was just it's their life. You know, I don't know how useful they were on the boat. They were happy there. So let them go. It's a tough, it's a tough, it's a tough topic, because I don't believe that someone ever outlived their usefulness. And I don't want to believe that we can't find a place for wisdom and leadership. I think all of us can use a little coaching.

    Doug Draper 21:00

    While going from a tough topic to a very relevant takut topic for all Americans on Thursday is is yours, Pete? So I'll roll the red carpet out. You just let it rip?

    Pete Mento 21:10

    Yeah, but Well, speaking of old people at dinner, oh, people in your life. I think one of my favorite things about mass holidays, like Christmas dinners, Easter lunches, Thanksgiving, is getting a bunch of people together who clearly are going to argue so definitely the case in my family, whether it's back in Texas where we have the teetotaling Southern Baptists, that wouldn't mean the smell of liquor on my breath will get me banished to the garage. Or if it's in my own family, where the entire spectrum of political thought exists at any given time. There's going to be some arguments. So here's crazy, Uncle Pete's simple guide to dealing with holiday meals. Number one, get drunk, stay drunk. Unless you can't do that, unless you've got an issue. Right? But I think you need to just go into this, maybe, you know, letting everyone know you're on your you're not to be messed with, because you're not going to make any sense anyway, like, why would you want to have what should be a rational conversation with someone who's starting at the starting line is probably going to be irrational. Number two, you need to set the tone early. So as soon as I sit down to dinner, I make sure that any conversations that we don't want to have you to happen right away, and I'm going to make them on terribly ugly. I'm going to say things I probably don't even agree with just to set the tone, and make everyone else so embarrassed, and so outraged that we just finished the meal in silence. Number three, I'd like to remind all of you that being in a family is a vocation, and we're supposed to love these people. But it's okay. It's okay. To not go to family dinners. If you just know it's going to be awful. Bruce Lee said it best Muhammad Ali had a piece of it. The best way not to get punched in the face is not to be there in the first place. So if you know that you and your 80 something year old grandpa are going to have a real problem with whatever new political issues come up. You know, maybe hit Applebee's for Thanksgiving this year, or go to a friend's house. You won't have to cook and I'm sorry, it won't be any blood flying. You have to go find grandpa's dentures after your right hook. So Doug, those are my simple rules for dealing with them. set the tone early, get drunk, stay drunk. And remember, you don't have to be there if you don't want to. Yeah,

    Doug Draper 23:29

    I don't know if that's good advice, or just advice to pass on. So my my only comment to that is more in the moment, if you get asked an odd question. Somebody you don't want to, you know, just the mashed potato dance, just put a bunch of food in your mouth, and then knock something over under the table and then act completely distracted and just say you can't talk you know, your your mouth is full of food. And then and then distract. So look over here a rope a dope, and then we'll just get the hell out of there.

    Pete Mento 24:01

    We've accused someone. I don't think we use this enough, right? When someone asks you a question that is meant to truly just be evocative. Give them the worst answer you possibly can. Like, why does it all matter? We're all gonna die from a giant asteroid anyway, or nothing to the effect of am I even really here? We just live in a giant simulation anyway, what's the whole point of it? Or turn the conversation around particularly with siblings and bring up terribly embarrassing things that are happening in their life that maybe no one else knows about? Find that's very effective as well.

    Doug Draper 24:34

    Yeah, deflect. Lots of opportunities. So good.

    Pete Mento 24:39

    Okay. A halftime brought to you as this whole show is by CAP logistics to learn more visit cap logistics.com thank them very much for helping us to actually for making this show happen. And thank Kenan as well for his increasingly better and better, you know, week over week more than more competent job. He produced the hell out of that last show all the videos and everything that was incredibly good. It was good. Why don't you give us a number two? All right, so this

    Doug Draper 25:12

    one, the topic has reared its ugly head again, post midterms, talks about a rail strike. And the bottom line of this, when will there be a rail strike in December? And the answer to that is no, there will not. So a quick recap. There's 12 unions that support the rail industry. It's about 115,000 people, each one of those 12 unions has to vote and approve. So it's not just a one vote and you're done. And I think the media spins out a little bit that they think that, you know, they dumb it down for people like myself, made a lot of attention. A couple of them said it was okay a couple of unions, and all went away. The midterms came and went and now it's on the forefront again. So here's here's the deal, you got the railway act from like 1926. I believe. If there is a rail strike, it's going to cripple commerce and create chaos in the supply chain. People don't realize that energy and commodity based industries, parcel LTL, full truckload, intermodal, all these boxes moving around, you can see him on the rail, the rail lines as they go, there's so much that moves on the rail, that it would be crippling, and the railway act, this was written in 1926. And I want you to think that I just said it 1920 or 2022, because it still applies. It says to avoid work stoppages that threatens to substantially interrupt interstate commerce to a degree such as to deprive any section of the country essential transportation services, commodities, though, basically, you could write that in 2022. So here's the deal, Congress, because of that act can avoid a strike by extending the quote unquote, cooling off period, I would refer to that as kicking the can approach this ticket down there. And let's define what exactly is the cooling off period? And how long does it last? Congress can set that up and define those parameters, there's no, there's no barriers around it. Or they can simply impose a specific contract on the union workforce. So they can either mandate or they can just elongate the discussion process. So Pete, there will be no strike, it will get some media of media attention, Congress will probably extend the cooling off period, give me more time to figure out the nuances of the contracts for all 12 unions. And by Christmas time, it'll all be behind us, there will not be any additional service interruptions. And we'll go about our business

    Pete Mento 27:45

    in 2023. The hope is not. So I'm building this from a hope perspective. What is the point of threatening strikes if you don't do them? So we'll start with that right. Second of all, politically, if Congress or any other organization inside the government were to dictate to a group, you're gonna go back to work, you don't have a choice. We don't care about your collective bargaining agreement, we don't care what you're saying, it is political suicide, particularly for the left, because some of the largest donors they have are organized in rooms. Now, I agree with you, they'll kick the can down the road. And I agree with you, this will give them chances to try to work something out. But today, you know, the conductors are saying they're not signing their contract and just not doing it, not doing it. And they have demands that they want to see fit. And if there was ever a time that you had leverage ever, ever without a war going on, it's now you cannot say that you could threaten to strike and then not do it, if you got to the point where you just weren't happy with the way that the bargaining was going. So if you're gonna be a tough guy and walk around and say that you're not afraid of people, and you'll go out on the street and fight, you better be ready to cover yourself and bear grease and get after it with the other guys, big guy. Because that's where this is going. They will kick it. I agree with you, they'll kick it down again. But if they don't, if they get pushed into something, because they're worried about government interaction, they'll never have leverage ever again. If you don't believe me, look at air traffic controllers. So I think that anybody who's looking at the strategy here should be advising them to hold off, get what they asked for, and Congress be damned.

    Doug Draper 29:42

    Well, we're both in agreement that kick the can policy will continue to happen. They'll figure it out, though. They'll figure it out. But I would agree and I had not thought of this comment that if they mandate some sort of contract that that would be political suicide, and nobody wants that after the midterms. So interesting point on Alan

    Pete Mento 30:01

    thought we're really gonna grow on this Doug and kind of bummed out.

    Doug Draper 30:04

    Yeah. Well, you brought the heat and your text message. And so I was I was waiting, Troy was ready to ready to pounce. So I'm glad I didn't have to get to that.

    Pete Mento 30:13

    He listened if you just want to get him right, that's cool, too. But you know, can we can go to you go to the last topic. This one for me is is it's one of those bellwethers, that gets me worried. Alright, so I put a post up on LinkedIn today, where I said, there's, and let me start by saying this duck, there's only one press I pay attention to in our industry, if it's not the JLC, GE Captain freightwaves, you know, American shipper, if it is not a, you know, byline for one of these reputable logistics sources, I don't pay much attention. I don't pay much attention to the Wall Street Journal, I don't pay much attention to MSNBC, or CNN or any of these are foxes, because they're not industry analysts, they don't spend their life in this industry. And it wouldn't take more than a few minutes to start seeing how they're people saying that these rates are the new normal, this is what it's going to be like, you know, you're gonna have East Coast rates that are where they are now maybe a little bit lower East Coast rates that are going to be, you know, maybe rising up a little bit. No, no, the very strikes we're talking about is why all the cargo is going to the East Coast. And that's jacking up rates, ocean carriers are doing everything that they possibly can to keep, you know, as few shifts as possible. So they're making as much profit as they can. But what really, really got my goat this week, was people are missing, a massive warning coming to us from China, production is going through the floor production. So production, right now it's down to less than 2%, over the last year, whatever. But it's the production of raw materials into semi finished goods. It's the number of people who are not being told to come back after Lunar New Year for work and start watching that stat. It's the number of people whose homes in China, they're not being brought forward. So they're going to end up in foreclosure or some other type of financial distress. It's the number of people there that are preparing for their own economic commitments, regardless of the rest of the world, they are beginning to come to grips with their own economic problem. That production number is one of the first excellent, excellent indicators that the rest of the world is buying less, as the rest of the world buys less capacity will have to continue to be constrained. Sooner or later, buddy, one of these ocean carriers is going to defective. When they do those rates are going to collapse on themselves, which we vetted out if you're not looking at the supply chain of the supply side, supply side of the supply chain. And paying attention to the fact that it's beginning to soften. You're missing one of the most important warnings we have in our economy. Yeah,

    Doug Draper 33:02

    well, we've talked about that TV commercial or that ad campaign years ago, with BASF. We don't make the things that you buy, we make the things that you buy better. So the supply side side of the supply chain, in the manufacturing, I think is is a big hit. The other piece that you made mention of is who's coming back after Chinese New Year and the implications of what COVID has had I think the COVID zero or zero COVID policy is pushing people away in China. And just like here in the US people like what you know what, what is there? Not what is there in life, but reassessing what's important and reprioritizing and coming back and potentially being locked up into a dorm room of your massive production plant at Fox comm or something of that nature is not interesting. And a lot of people aren't going to come back. So I think there's a couple of different things that are in play. But the Chinese, the CPI is definitely something to keep an eye on.

    Pete Mento 34:11

    Yeah, so the last thing I'll punctuate that with Doug. And he made a great point is there's a lot of folks that just spent a year teetering on whether or not they're going to be stuck in their home for eight weeks. And they're asking themselves, why don't I go back to a smaller city where this is probably not going to be as much of a concern, or go back to where I came from with the money I've made and start to establish in your life. And that's not me, it's human nature. We shouldn't be surprised. So those are those are great observations. Yeah.

    Doug Draper 34:39

    Well, Pete, with those comments, we're going to wrap up this Thanksgiving edition of global trade this week, as we've mentioned, is brought to you by Capitol logistics. And I don't know if our audience knows but Kenan is the is the voiceover on the intro the show and before I met him and heard that voice I was picturing this like six foot six 300 pound, massive human and Kenyans not quite at that level. But for those that you didn't know, Keenan does the over overflow. And he also produces a show and he also works for CAP logistics, which gives us the platform to talk about what we do eat. So I want to thank you for always jumping on and your tips on Thanksgiving dinner. We'll have to see how that how that pans out. First

    Pete Mento 35:27

    of all, nearly guys go ugly. Yeah, I

    Doug Draper 35:30

    love it. So thank you all for listening to global trade this week. We appreciate it. Make some comments, feedback. You have suggestions on topics we welcome them all. So until next week, we'll sign off. Thanks, Pete. Take care Thanksgiving, buddy.